Since it can be inferred that “The Resident” is almost definitely making it to season two, I will try to predict how it is going to perform in the upcoming year.
“9-1-1” is an already renewed show of a similar genre. It would pair well going back to back with “The Resident”. I think it would be great for Monday nights, because “9-1-1” has a very strong following. This season, “9-1-1” premiered on Wednesdays. It did well in the ratings consistently every week. Airing at 9 p.m., the season finale of “9-1-1” drew a 1.7 rating in adults 18-49 and 6.6 million viewers.
“The Resident” is back to airing new episodes and pulling the same exact numbers as before. The April 16th show generated an 0.9/3 rating/share and 4.2 million viewers. This is the exact numbers the show received on 3/12, 3/19, and 3/26. It is clear that the show has its core following and is not changing. The show has not done any major promotions to increase this viewership.
I cannot find any information on when Fox’s upfront is happening. However, I can see on Cancel Bear that so far only “The Gifted”, “911” “The Orville”, and “The Simpsons” have been officially renewed. These shows are produced in house and owned by Fox, hence why they are an obvious renewal. “The Resident” is also owned by Fox, so it’s chances of renewal by May 2018 is high. This in combination with consistent ratings is a recipe for success.
According to cancel bear, “The Resident” is most likely to be renewed by May 2018. The show has an 18-49 rating of 1.13 and a Renew/Cancel Index of 0.43, which is very good. Since the show is owned by Fox’s affiliate studio, why haven’t they sealed the deal yet?
One possible explanation could be the Network does not want to commit to anything until upfront happen. Perhaps the network has an allocated budget to spend on certain shows, and if advertisers want a new show in the mix, they could forego “The Resident” to make room. Fox has not even announced its upfront date yet.
Another possible explanation is the network is trying to decide if “The Resident” is worth keeping around when “9-1-1”, which is of a similar genre, has already been renewed. Since critical acclaim has not been great, this could be a feasible explanation.
Even though the show is staying consistent in ratings, Fox is holding off until the last possible minute.
The rumors about “The Resident” and “9-1-1” collaborating on a show together turned out to be not true. They should have done this to increase ratings. I am not sure why they never followed through with it.
“The Resident” still seems to be holding on despite the addition of “American Idol”. On Idol’s premiere on Sunday March 11, “The Resident” only dropped by 200,000 viewers. That week, Idol had 8.36 million viewers. The following week, “The Resident” actually gained back those viewers despite Idol having 7.74 million people watching. It seems like “The Resident” is going to stay consistent with numbers even though major players got added into the game.
Also new at “The Resident’s” 9pm timeslot is iZombie on the CW. iZombie premiered on February 26, 2018. It does not seem to be competition at all because it cannot bring in a million viewers.
According to Cancel Bear on TV By The Numbers, The Resident has increased its chances of renewal. In week eighteen of the 2017-2018 television season cycle Cancel Bear gave the show three bears. Now in week twenty-three, the prediction has increased to four bears. Overall the show has an 18-49 rating of 1.28 and a renew/Cancel index of 0.58. Based on the ratings of the other shows, this looks promising.
If a show is in the negatives for the renew/Cancel index, then it is highly unlikely to get renewed. With that in mind, any renew/Cancel index above a 0.5 is highly likely to get renewed. If the show has a low renew/Cancel index but a high 18-49 rating, then the chances of the show getting renewed are also very high. You have to give the people what they want!
The Cancel Bear noted in its article that if The Resident could remain above a 1.0 rating, it would likely survive. For the next few weeks it managed to do that. However, last week it fell to a 0.8, its lowest 18-49 rating so far. However, the chances of renewal are still likely. We will have to wait until May 2018 to see!
“The Resident’s” biggest competitor this season is ABC’s new medical drama “The Good Doctor”. The show follows Shaun Murphy, a young surgeon with autism and Savant syndrome, is recruited into the surgical unit of a prestigious hospital. The show is the #2 show on network television this season, behind NBC’s “This Is Us”. It has received critical acclaim. Freddie Highmore has been nominated for a Golden Globe for best performance by an actor in a television series – drama. He was also nominated for a Critics Choice Award for best actor in a drama series.
“The Good Doctor” has exceeded expectations. The pilot on September 25 put up a rating of 2.19 and over 11 million viewers for the 18-49 demographic. The shocking part is the show’s ability to keep those ratings. The show’s biggest viewership deficit was 8.17%, but then went back up the next week 12.49%. While it has not been officially picked up for a second season, it is a shoe in for renewal. Overall, “The Resident” is no threat to “The Good Doctor”.
It is no secret that network medical dramas like to play up soap opera storylines. Specifically, these shows love to get people talking about all the on camera relationships. We have seen it time and time again with General Hospital, ER, and Grey’s Anatomy. Now I see Fox using the same strategies on “The Resident” but with a modern spin.
Notice how every woman who tweets at the show is female. I like to say that the people tweeting at this show have a “fan girl” attitude, where they most care about the looks of the characters and the on screen relationships. The show picks up on this, which is why they post interactive quizzes on twitter and gifs about these subjects. Now with social media, the way we interact with shows is different. Fox is capitalizing on this “fan girl” attitude to boost social media traffic.
“The Resident” will be back next Monday 2/26 with a new episode. It took a three week hiatus because of the Olympics.
Chances of renewal seem likely for “The Resident”. According to a TV by The Numbers columnist, the chances are better than 50/50 despite the shows’ average ratings in its Monday 9PM time slot. Fox’s sister studio 21st Century Fox owns the show, which almost always guarantees renewal. However, there are major changes happening at 21st Century Fox, so by next fall the studio could very easily not own “The Resident” anymore. When the new schedule is being set this May, the heads of Fox will also be running the studio. This is very unusual and will cause big changes in the business model at the company.
A better explanation of what is happening to Fox here:
Fox’s other new drama “9-1-1” is performing very well and will definitely be picked up for a second season. Something interesting to look out for in the coming weeks is Fox decided to pair up “The Resident” and “9-1-1” for a special to gain exposure for both shows. I think that the mashup will enhance “The Resident”’s chances of getting picked up for a second season.
This semester I will be covering Fox’s new winter 2018 medical drama “The Resident”. The show stars an optimistic young doctor (played by Matt Czuchry of “The Good Wife”) who discovers through his senior resident and expert villain (played by Bruce Greenwood of “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story,” and “Mad Men”) that modern day medicine is not always for the good of the people, it is about making money. The target audience for this show is 18-49. You can watch the trailer here:
The show premiered on Fox on Sunday January 21st around 10pm after the NFC Championship and postgame show. Outside of the super bowl, a series cannot ask for a better lead in, but the numbers fell flat. Episode 1 received a 2.6 rating and 8.65 million viewers.
Here are the numbers from shows that premiered following the NFC Championship in years past:
Experts say that “The Resident” lacked due to the decline in both overall primetime and NFL ratings this season. Monday’s premiere, which will be its usual air time at 9pm, took a hit as well. Episode 2 received an 1.0/4 rating and 5.7 million viewers. Episode 3 flattened out and was only shy of its competitor “The Good Doctor” on ABC, with a 0.9/3 rating and 4.68 million viewers. “The Good Doctor” received a 0.8/3 rating and 5.01 million viewers.
Second Chance continued to pull similar ratings for FOX this past week. Since February 26th, the show has been pulling a 0.5 rating in the 18-49 demographic and has garnered anywhere from 1.17 to 2.15 million viewers with this same rating. It’s not terrible for FOX, but there was a reason, after all, that the show was moved to Friday’s after only two weeks.
This past Friday, March 25th, Second Chance reached the end of its original episode order. FOX only ordered eleven episodes of the show (cut back from the original order, as I’ve blogged about before) and that programming ended with this past week. There’s no official word either way from FOX on whether or not the show will continue, but a Bustle article from just a few days ago makes a strong case for its renewal. That article also links to this Entertainment Weekly piece from back in January noting that FOX did spend quite a bit of money on reshoots for the show which the author argues they probably would not have done if they didn’t believe in it. Based on what I’ve seen online, the show has a dedicated fanbase, but it’s still unclear whether or not keeping the show around will make sense for FOX from a business standpoint.